Area Forecast Discussion (2024)


994
FXUS63 KSGF 082015
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
315 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Scattered showers and thunderstorms today (50-80% chance).
Higher chances arrive tonight through Tuesday Night (70-99%)
especially southeast of Interstate 44.

-Flood Watch in effect tonight through Tuesday Night generally
along and east of a Branson to Rolla line. 1-3 inches of
rainfall expected in this area with localized 4-6 inch totals.
Much lower rainfall amounts northwest of I-44.

-Marginal risk for a severe storm tonight into Tuesday morning
along and east of a Branson to Rolla line. Low chance for
damaging winds and/or a brief tornado in this area.

-Temperatures dip below average Tuesday through Thursday with a
warming trend returning for the end of the work week. Then the
Heat Index will climb back above 100 by this weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1255 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

Please see the section labeled "Post-Tropical Depression Beryl
Discussion" for pertinent details on the potentially impactful
event tonight through Tuesday night.

Current visible satellite imagery depicts Tropical Storm
centered over east TX with its bands spreading into the
ArkLaTex/OklaTex regions. Beryl is currently undergoing
transition to Post-Tropical as it phases with a positively-
tilted trough over the central CONUS. A stalling/weakening cold
front is associated with this trough across the MO/KS border.
Current radar observations depict developing thunderstorms in a
SW-NE oriented band along a hybrid warm front/outer-band of
Beryl that is generally parallel to I-44. These are also being
supported by right entrance region jet dynamics.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms today (50-80% chance):

The aforementioned thunderstorms are continuing to increase in
coverage and will propagate NW along with the lifting warm
front. WoFs is has good agreement in the line becoming more
defined as the storms progress NW through the evening. The
environment these storms are in will generally not support
severe hazards. Shear is rather weak and linear, especially in
the low-levels. Latest SGF VAD produces 10-15 kts of 0-3 km
shear and 5 kts max of 0-1 km shear. Additionally, SBCAPE is
also marginal at 1000-1500 J/kg. However, deep-layer shear does
approach 25-30 kts, and PWATs steadily increasing into the
1.75-2.00" range with low and mid- level RH values >50% could
favor a few isolated pulse or multi- cell clusters producing
sub-severe to marginally severe downbursts (40-60 mph). Current
trends support these hazards being isolated. Heavy rainfall will
be the main hazard with these storms. These will generally
dissipate and move out of the area after 7-9 PM as instability
decreases, leaving lingering showers ahead of the bulk of
Beryl`s precipitation.

Post-Tropical Depression Beryl Discussion:

A potentially impactful from soon-to-be Post-Tropical Depression
Beryl is setting up for tonight through Tuesday night, with
potential lingering effects through mid-week.

+What: The center of Beryl is forecast to move through the
Missouri Boot Heel region Tuesday through Tuesday night. The
bulk of precipitation associated with it will move through the
region, bringing widespread areas of 1-3 inches of rain with
localized totals up to 4-6 inches. There is a low-end threat of
brief tornadoes within some bands. Flash flooding will occur in
areas that receive the highest rain rates and amounts,
especially within smaller streams, tributaries and low-water
crossings, where rapid rises are possible. A Flood Watch is in
effect from 7 PM tonight through late Tuesday night.

+Where: Much of the rainfall above 1 inch will fall along and
east of a line from Cassville to Camdenton (>50% chance, higher
chances the further east you go). There will be a sharp
precipitation gradient that sets up somewhere along this line
(see Uncertainties section for more details). Higher confidence
in rain totals above 2 inches along and east of a line from
Branson to Rolla (40-60% chance). Depending on where the
heaviest rain bands and thunderstorms set up, localized amounts
up to 4-6 inches are possible. Areas NW of I-44 will see
significantly less rain (0.25-0.75", with less than half an
inches along the MO/KS border.

+When: Widespread rainfall is first expected to enter the region
from the south between 10 PM and 1 AM. The heaviest
precipitation will then begin between 12-3 AM. Bouts of moderate
to heavy rain and embedded thunderstorms will last all the way through
4-7 PM Tuesday. The greatest threat for tornadoes will be
between 3-7 AM, though even during this time, the confidence in
this threat panning out is quite low. All precipitation should
exit the area by midnight Tuesday night.

+Uncertainties: This is still quite a good deal of uncertainty
in this system. The storm has consistently moved faster and more
east than previous model guidance and NHC forecasts. If Beryl
continues this persistent trend of progressing quicker and more
east than modeled (which current trends seem to support this),
rainfall totals could fall on the lower end of the envelope.
This is reflected by both NBM and HREF QPF spreads where a
this lower-end scenario (25th percentile) could produce
widespread 0.5-1.5 inches rather than 1-3 inches, whereas a
higher-end scenario from a slower and more westward Beryl (75th
percentile) could see widespread amounts of 3-5 inches. Another
uncertainty is exactly where the heaviest rain and
thunderstorms will set up. This will be somewhere over the
eastern Ozarks. Wherever the band sets up, localized totals of
4-6 inches are possible.

+Extra Details: Despite uncertainties, tropical systems are
efficient rainfall producers as PWATs will exceed 2 inches in
our eastern counties. This will make it easy for heavier bands
to produce flooding. On the other hand, this will be a regular
long-fused event for 1-3 inches as opposed to thunderstorms
quickly dropping that amount in a couple hours. That means it
will be important to continue to monitor conditions and warnings
for the latest forecast and warning information. Precipitation
ARIs are approaching the 25-50 year ARI range, meaning events
like these generally occur every 25 to 50 years on average,
especially for this time of year. In terms of the tornado
threat, low-level shear will increase to 100-200 m2/s2 in our
extreme southeastern counties overnight

Winds are not expected to increase drastically with this system.
The highest winds will be within Howell, Oregon, and Shannon
counties at 15-20 mph. However, gusts up to 20-40 mph are
possible within any thunderstorm.

Lastly, with persistent cloud cover, highs will be mild today in
the lower 80s and in the lower 70s Tuesday. Lows will be in the
mid-60s tonight and lower 60s Tuesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1255 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

Warming trend Wednesday through the end of the work week:

After Beryl exits the region, a relatively persistently weather
pattern will set up as an upper-level low sits over the Great
Lakes/Northeast, and an upper-level high lumbers east through
the western CONUS. Highs will slowly climb as the upper-level
high edges close to our region. Wednesday will see highs in the
middle to upper 80s. By Friday, highs will reach the upper 80s
to middle 90s. In parallel, lows Wednesday night will be in the
middle 60s and reach into the upper 60s and lower 70s Friday
night.

Thursday afternoon into Friday morning could see some isolated
showers and thunderstorms as a weak boundary develops, but
uncertainty and model spread is too high at the moment to
introduce more than 20% PoPs.

Heat Index values climb back to near 100 F this weekend:

The upper-level high out west will continue to inch eastward
into this weekend. As such, highs will continue to climb into
the lower and middle 90s Saturday and Sunday with lows in the
lower to middle 70s. Early guidance have Heat Index values
approaching 100 F during this time period. Trends will continue
to be monitored for potential increases in forecast highs, lows
and Heat Index values.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

Conditions will steadily deteriorate through the TAF period
ahead of the arrival of Tropical Storm (to-be Post-Tropical
Depression) Beryl. Scattered thunderstorms are currently
developing along a hybrid stationary boundary/outer-band of
Beryl. These will impact BBG early in the TAF period before
spreading NW into SGF and JLN. If the core of one of these
storms moves over a TAF site, heavy rain dropping visibilities
to 2-3 miles are possible.

A lull in thunderstorm activity will occur after 01Z. Lingering
showers will dominate this period before the greater bulk of
moderate to heavy precipitation moves in from the south after
04Z and through the rest of the period. SGF and BBG may receive
heavy showers--with the potential for a rumble of thunder or
two--during this period. JLN looks to be on the outer fringes
at this time but could still see heavy rain at times.

Other than rain, cloud cover will increase with most of the
clouds above VFR level until 09Z in which they will drop to MVFR
(potentially IFR) for SGF and BBG. Wind speeds will stay rather
light and variable with multiple boundaries clearing the sites
during the period. These should settle to 8-12 kts from the
NNE by 08Z. Gusts up to 20-30 kts will be possible during
heavier thunderstorms.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 315 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

Record Precipitation:

July 9:
KUNO: 1.27/2015

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through late Tuesday
night for MOZ070-071-081>083-091-092-095>098-103>106.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Price
LONG TERM...Price
AVIATION...Price
CLIMATE...Burchfield

Area Forecast Discussion (2024)

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